The war strategy used by Russia in Ukraine and the sanctions from the west

 

It is an unfortunate and devastating event of the 21st century that we saw a war between Russia and Ukraine. Though the tensions had been there but in no time it escalated into a full scale war which not only dealt a heavy blow to both the countries and forced the common people of the Ukraine to pick up arms in order to protect their nation. It was a sad and unfortunate event and more saddening part was that all the peacekeepers failed in their efforts. 

But there is another lesson that it taught us and that is 'what a world war in 21st century will look like.' The strategies used are new and technologies involved are much advanced.

The Strategy used by Russia in war

The war started with airstrikes and the usage of high precision missiles, air to ground, sea to ground and ground to ground missiles. The first and foremost target were airports and air defense systems. To protect the artillery air defence systems were kept along side with the attacking regime and missiles were fired farther away form the border into main defense locations near the border. At this point if most of the air defense system is located nearer to the border then it is easier to destroy not because it cannot intercept the missiles but because jets can easily target them under when they are busy intercepting missiles from other side or because they had been hacked earlier.

February 24, in the border areas of the Ukrainian forces claimed to have shot down five planes and a helicopter of the Russian forces. But in on the same day Russia claimed that Kyiv's air defence systems were "eliminated." Thus by eliminating the air defence systems and damaging the airports, Ukrainians air force is immobilized and they are unable to protect themselves from the aerial raids.

The Next Step

Now it's the time for more air raids. This time on military locations near borders. All the military camps were targeted and airstrikes were conducted in the region forcing the army to either evacuate or hide in shelters. In the meantime in the absence of army units Russia began to send in forces and machinery into the borders.The only opposition now was from scattered units and hiding commands that are easier to push away. This also gave Russia an opportunity to gain intelligence and recognize locations for more airstrikes and required operations.

What was used at first?

It was a cyber attack. At first Russia used cyber attack to open the way for operations in Ukraine. On 22nd of Feb there were many reports of cyber attacks on different government institutions of Ukraine. Not only did they manage to affect the security and defence systems but also forced the government to focus on the damages of the cyber attack too. And then it was so sudden but predictable that airstrikes begun and the invasion started.

Still there is much in this regard what we know and what we don't and also we do not know how it will end.

Have we seen such a strategy before?

In the year 1967 7 Arab nations were defeated by one Israel in what we call as six day war. The strategy used by Israel at that time were similar to what we see today. At one point as it seemed that Isreal was cornered by the Arab nations and it could prove to be disastrous to them, they used the most advanced jets of their time to destroy almost all the airfields of their enemy nations. As a result the air capabilities of the Arab nations were immobilized and now Israel had an upper hand in terms of aerial command and that made all the difference. Without air defence systems and wholly dependent on ground forces Arab nations suffered great damages and eventually lost the war.

How Western sanctions will target Russia

BANKS & FINANCIAL FIRMS

Britain announced sanctions on five banks - Bank Rossiya, Black Sea Bank, Genbank, IS Bank and Promsvyazbank - all are smaller lenders, with only Promsvyazbank on the central bank's list of systematically important lenders.

U.S. President Joe Biden announced sanctions on VEB bank and Russia's military bank, referring to Promsvyazbank, which does defence deals. The Treasury Department said: "All assets under U.S. jurisdiction will be immediately frozen and U.S. individuals and entities are prohibited from doing business."

A senior U.S. administration official added that Sberbank (SBER.MM), and VTB Bank (VTBR.MM) would face sanctions if the Russian invasion proceeds.

Bank Rossiya is already under U.S. sanctions from 2014 for its close ties to Kremlin officials.

The European Union has agreed to blacklist banks involved in financing separatist activities in eastern Ukraine.

Russia's large banks are deeply integrated into the global financial system, meaning sanctions could be felt far beyond its borders. Data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) shows that European lenders hold the lion's share of the nearly $30 billion in foreign banks' exposure to Russia.

According to data from Russia's central bank, total Russian banking foreign assets and liabilities stood at $200.6 billion and $134.5 billion respectively with the U.S. dollar share amounting to around 53% of both, down from 76%-81% two decades ago.

SOVEREIGN DEBT & CAPITAL MARKETS

The package of measures from the EU will "target the ability of the Russian state and government to access the EU's capital and financial markets and services, to limit the financing of escalatory and aggressive policies," according to a statement by the bloc.

It will ban EU investors from trading in Russian state bonds.

The United States also increased restrictions on dealings in Russia's sovereign debt. Americans, who had already been barred from investing in Russian sovereign debt directly, will now also be banned from purchasing it in the secondary market after March 1.

Britain threatened last week to block Russian companies from raising capital in London, Europe's financial centre for such transactions, though has stopped short of doing so in its announcements on Tuesday. read more

Even before the latest events, access to Russian bonds had become increasingly restricted.

U.S. sanctions imposed in 2015 made future Russian dollar debt ineligible for many investors and key indexes. In April 2021, Biden barred U.S. investors from buying new Russian rouble bonds over accusations of Russian meddling in the U.S. election.

The curbs have cut Russia's external debt by 33% since early 2014 - from $733 billion to $489 billion in the third quarter of 2021. Lower debt improves a country's balance sheet on the surface, but deprives it of financing sources that could contribute to economic growth and development.

INDIVIDUALS

Sanctioning persons via asset freezes and travel bans is a commonly used tool and the United States, the EU and Britain already have such sanctions in place against a number of Russian individuals.

The EU on Monday imposed sanctions on five people who were involved in a Russian parliamentary election in annexed Crimea in September 2021. read more

On Tuesday, the bloc said it would blacklist all lawmakers in the lower house of the Russian parliament who voted in favour of the recognition of the breakaway regions, freeze any assets they have in the EU and ban them from travelling to the bloc.
A tank drives along a street after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the deployment of Russian troops to two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine following the recognition of their independence, in the separatist-controlled city of Donetsk, Ukraine February 22, 2022. REUTERS/Alexander Ermochenko
U.S. President Joe Biden and Russia's President Vladimir Putin arrive for the U.S.-Russia summit at Villa La Grange in Geneva, Switzerland, June 16, 2021. Saul Loeb/Pool via REUTERS
People rest on a bench at the Exhibition of Achievements of National Economy (VDNH). An installation reads: "Russia". REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov/File Photo
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U.S. President Joe Biden and Russia's President Vladimir Putin arrive for the U.S.-Russia summit at Villa La Grange in Geneva, Switzerland, June 16, 2021. Saul Loeb/Pool via REUTERS

Meanwhile Britain has imposed sanctions on three men, Gennady Timchenko and billionaires Igor and Boris Rotenberg - all of whom are allies of President Vladimir Putin from St. Petersburg whose personal fortunes grew precipitously following Putin’s rise to the presidency. All three men are already sanctioned by the United States.

The United States also imposed sanctions on Tuesday against Russian elites close to Putin.

Those hit by sanctions include Alexander Bortnikov, the head of the Federal Security Service, Russia’s powerful domestic security and counterintelligence service.

His son, Denis Bortnikov, the deputy president of Russian-state owned financial institution VTB Bank Public Joint Stock Company and a chairman of the bank's management company, was also targeted in Tuesday's move.

Also designated was Putin’s first deputy chief of staff and former Russian Prime Minister, Sergei Kiriyenko. He was previously targeted by the United States, EU and Britain in response to the poisoning of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny. His son, Vladimir Kiriyenko, was also designated Tuesday.

The chairman and chief executive of Promsvyazbank was also targeted. The Treasury accused Petr Fradkov of working to transform the bank into one that serves the defense industry.

While the United States has used the SDN designation in the past to sanction oligarchs deemed to be "bad actors," it has become more cautious in recent years after 2018 sanctions on the owner of Rusal saw aluminium prices skyrocket and forced Washington to backtrack. read more

A bill unveiled by U.S. Senate Democrats in January aimed for sweeping sanctions against top Russian government and military officials, including Putin, and President Biden has said he would be ready to consider personal sanctions on the Russian president. read more

Moscow has said any move to impose sanctions on Putin himself would not harm the Russian president personally but would prove "politically destructive."

ENERGY CORPORATES & NORD STREAM 2

The United States and the EU already have sanctions in place on Russia's energy and defence sectors, with state-owned gas company Gazprom, its oil arm Gazpromneft and oil producers Lukoil, Rosneft and Surgutneftegaz facing various types of curbs on exports/imports and debt-raising.

Sanctions could be widened and deepened, with one possible option being to prevent companies settling in U.S. dollars.

Nord Stream 2, a recently completed pipeline from Russia to Germany, was awaiting regulatory approval by EU and German authorities before Berlin put its certification on ice. read more

Europe's dependence on Russian energy supplies weakens the West's hand when considering sanctions in this sector.

CURBING CHIPS

The White House has told the U.S. chip industry to be ready for new restrictions on exports to Russia if Moscow attacks Ukraine, including potentially blocking Russia's access to global electronics supplies.

Similar measures were deployed during the Cold War, when sanctions kept the Soviet Union technologically backward and crimped economic growth.

SWITCHING OFF SWIFT

One of the harshest measures would be to disconnect the Russian financial system from SWIFT, which handles international financial transfers and is used by more than 11,000 financial institutions in over 200 countries.

A senior U.S. official said they are not taking SWIFT sanctions off the table.

In 2012, SWIFT disconnected Iranian banks as international sanctions tightened against Tehran over its nuclear program. Iran lost half its oil export revenue and 30% of its foreign trade, the Carnegie Moscow Center think tank said.

Among Western countries, the United States and Germany would stand to lose the most from such a move, as their banks are the most frequent SWIFT users with Russian banks, said Maria Shagina at the Carnegie Moscow Center.

Calls to cut Russia's SWIFT access were mooted in 2014 when Moscow annexed Crimea, prompting Moscow to develop an alternative messaging system, SPFS.

The number of messages sent via SPFS was about one-fifth of Russian internal traffic in 2020, according to the central bank, which aims to increase this to 30% in 2023. However, SPFS has struggled to establish itself in international transactions.

Will sanctions on Russia prove to be of any effect?

Experts say that these sanctions will have a devastating effect on the countries economy and will isolate Russia from rest of the world. What matters now is that how Russia will act towards these curbs and how its allies react to it. A main player in the game is china, if China decides to allow the trade then it can mean that sanctions of the west will not prove that useful, thus resulting in an embargo on China too. This if let culminated can lead to another cold war. But as of now the situation seems to be preferably do alongside the western sanctions though Russia is trying and will try to get rid of all these sanctions.